Compartmental Modeling
Objectifs
Describe the main compartmental models in epidemiology
Simulate epidemics using Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models
Interpret the different parameters for the SIR model and its derivatives to guide public health decision-making.
Translate epidemic propagation hypotheses into a system of differential equations.
Simulate stochastic models and represent average behavior
Simulate epidemic control strategies and measure their effectiveness
Plan
Background to compartmental modeling. Definition of an epidemic.
Deterministic SIR model
Calculation of the basic reproduction rate (R0)
Epidemic simulation
Examples of epidemiological surveillance data
Examples of models derived from the SIR model.
Stochastic SIR model
Prérequis
Probability, inferential statistics, SAS, R (1A)
Linear regression, GLM, Duration model, Bayesian computation, Resampling methods (2A)
Process statistics, Epidemiology (3A)